Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
